Georgia vs Mississippi State Prediction, Odds, and Expert Picks for Week 11
The Georgia Bulldogs vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs matchup in Week 11 of college football promises high-stakes action as both SEC teams look to solidify their postseason hopes. The fifth-ranked Georgia Bulldogs (7-1, 5-1 SEC) head to Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville to face Mississippi State (5-4, 1-4 SEC) in a critical Saturday clash.
Georgia continues its push toward the College Football Playoff with an impressive road record and elite defense, while Mississippi State aims to play spoiler behind a high-powered passing attack.
Georgia vs Mississippi State Game Overview
- Kickoff: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
- Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
- TV Coverage: SEC Network
- Current Line: Georgia -9.5
- Over/Under: 56.5
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, has delivered another confident pick after generating over $2,000 in profit for $100 bettors since inception.
Why Georgia Can Cover the Spread
Georgia’s offense continues to thrive under quarterback Gunner Stockton, who has been one of the most efficient signal-callers in the SEC this season.
- Stockton’s 2025 stats: 70.3% completion rate, 1,776 passing yards, 12 TDs, 2 INTs.
- He’s also a dual-threat, rushing for 290 yards and seven touchdowns.
Freshman running back Chauncey Bowens has proven to be a dynamic weapon on the ground, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. His standout performance came against Alabama, where he racked up 119 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.
Defensively, Georgia ranks top 10 nationally in total defense (301.2 YPG) and allows just 18.4 points per game, which makes it tough for opponents to find rhythm.
Key Stat: Georgia has covered the spread in 6 of its last 8 SEC road games.
Why Mississippi State Can Cover
Mississippi State has found its groove offensively thanks to quarterback Blake Shapen, who’s been lighting up defenses.
- Shapen’s 2025 stats: 2,148 yards, 15 TDs, 6 INTs, 65.1% completion.
- He’s thrown for 380+ yards in two of his last three games.
Wide receiver Brenen Thompson has been the go-to target, recording 41 receptions for 716 yards and six touchdowns. His deep-play ability could exploit Georgia’s secondary, especially if they’re missing defensive back Demello Jones.
The Bulldogs’ offense averages 31.4 points per game, ranking among the top half of the SEC, though their defense has been inconsistent, allowing 28.7 points per contest.
Key Stat: Mississippi State is 3-2 at home this season and has scored 30+ points in four of its last five home games.
Georgia vs Mississippi State Key Stats Comparison
| Category | Georgia Bulldogs | Mississippi State Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1 (5-1 SEC) | 5-4 (1-4 SEC) |
| Points Per Game | 34.9 | 31.4 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 18.4 | 28.7 |
| Total Offense (YPG) | 420.8 | 392.5 |
| Passing Yards | 221.9 | 258.3 |
| Rushing Yards | 198.9 | 134.2 |
| Turnover Differential | +5 | -3 |
| ATS Record (2025) | 5-3 | 3-6 |
Expert Prediction and Betting Pick
The SportsLine model projects a final score of 31–25 in favor of Georgia, which slightly leans toward the Under (56.5). Georgia’s balanced offense and superior defense should ultimately prevail, but Mississippi State’s passing game may keep it close.
Expert Pick: Georgia -9.5
Projected Total: Under 56.5
Confidence Level: 60%
Georgia vs Mississippi State Prediction Summary
Expect Georgia’s defense to make critical stops late in the game, while Gunner Stockton and Chauncey Bowens control the pace offensively. Mississippi State will challenge early, but Georgia’s depth and discipline should prove decisive.
Also Read:- Warriors vs Nuggets: Injury Updates on Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and What to Expect Tonight
Final Score Prediction: Georgia 31, Mississippi State 25
Georgia vs Mississippi State FAQs
Q1. What is the Georgia vs Mississippi State spread for Week 11?
A1. Georgia is currently a 9.5-point favorite over Mississippi State in the latest betting odds.
Q2. What is the over/under total for Georgia vs Mississippi State?
A2. The total for this matchup is set at 56.5 points, according to the latest sportsbooks.
Q3. Who is starting at quarterback for Georgia?
A3. Gunner Stockton will start at QB, boasting over 1,700 passing yards and 19 total touchdowns this season.
Q4. Where is the Georgia vs Mississippi State game being played?
A4. The game will take place at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville, Mississippi.
Q5. What does the SportsLine model predict?
A5. The model projects the game to go Under with Georgia covering the spread nearly 60% of the time.
Conclusion
The Georgia vs. Mississippi State Week 11 matchup blends SEC intensity, playoff implications, and star-powered performances. Georgia’s strong two-way play should keep their playoff dreams alive, but Mississippi State’s offense ensures this won’t be a one-sided affair.
